Trump Just Waived Tariffs on 661 Million Pounds of Foreign Beef

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What Trump’s order does

Friday morning, Trump announced on Truth Social that up to 661 million pounds of foreign beef can enter the US tariff-free for the next 90 days.

"This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again," Trump wrote. He added that it comes with "a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25% below current market prices," without saying who delivers that, or how.

This is the second move this year. In February, the administration added 176 million pounds of beef trimmings to the quota and handed all of it to Argentina.

Why ranchers are upset

The US cattle herd is down to 86.2 million head, the smallest since 1951.

Ranchers have spent 4 years absorbing drought, high feed costs, and thin margins, with record prices arriving as the payoff. Late August is when they decide whether to hold back young females for breeding instead of selling. This announcement landed on that decision.

The market answered that morning. October live cattle fell $4.70 per hundredweight, which is roughly $66 per animal on a finished steer, in one session.

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association said the move "sacrifices long-term stability for short term messaging."

Rebuilding a herd also means keeping females out of the meat supply for 2 to 3 years, so beef gets scarcer before it gets cheaper. Higher cattle prices and lower beef prices in the same year are two opposite requests.

How will prices be affected?

Ground beef hit $6.89 a pound in July, an all-time high, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State, estimates this 661 million pounds to equate to about 3% of US beef demand. When the ground beef supply rises 1%, the price tends to drop about 1%.

A 2 to 3% bump works out to 15 to 21 cents off a pound.

Trump promised 25% off. On a $6.89 pound, that's $1.72. The supply math doesn't reach it, and the announcement didn't explain what would.

Price increases don’t seem to be related to our shrinking domestic herd.. An American Enterprise Institute analysis in January credited about 70% of the increase since 2020 to general inflation and another 20% to people buying more beef.

Where your ground beef comes from

Imports are already about 17% of the total US beef supply, the highest share on record. Add the 661 million pounds and the number climbs toward 1 in every 4 pounds for the length of the window.

From January through May, 5 countries covered most of it. Brazil sent 22%, Australia 20%, Canada 15%, Mexico 12%, and New Zealand 10%.

Mexico's role works differently. It ships live calves that get raised and slaughtered here, around 1.2 million head in a normal year. That trade was shut for roughly a year over a parasite called New World screwworm. It reopens today, one crossing at a time, starting at Douglas, Arizona.

Is imported beef worse?

Not on safety, going by the record.

The USDA inspects and certifies foreign plants that ship here, and their beef has to meet the same standards as ours. Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay raise cattle on pasture, which is what makes their trim lean enough to be worth buying.

On a few points, imported beef is arguably cleaner. Mexico bans ractopamine, a growth drug the FDA permits here. Most exporting countries finish on grass rather than grain as warmer climates allow for longer months on pasture.

Since January 1, a package labeled "Product of USA" has to mean the animal was born, raised, slaughtered, and processed here. That's a real fix. Before, a company could import beef, grind it, repack it, and call it American.

That label is voluntary, however. A company that skips it doesn't have to print any country of origin at all. The American Grassfed Association has argued for years that most grass-fed beef sold here was raised somewhere else.

So 661 million pounds arrives over the next 3 months, and none of it has to say so on the package.

The bottom line

Beef is expensive because America's cattle herd is the smallest it's been since 1951. Cheap imports for 90 days don't fix that.
Don't expect 25% off. The math works out to maybe 15–20 cents a pound.
Imported beef isn't unsafe. But we'd rather rebuild American ranching than replace it.

What to do at the counter

Look for "Product of USA." Since January, it means born, raised, and slaughtered here. No label, no guarantee.
Buy from a butcher or ranch that can name the state the animal came from.
Stretch your dollar with the whole animal: chuck roast, brisket, liver, and heart are cheaper and just as nourishing as premium cuts.
Be extra careful with 90/10 and 85/15 ground beef through Thanksgiving. That's where imported trim shows up first.

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